PRESENTATION GUIDELINES
Ø Orientações: projetar o texto e apresentar os aspectos linguísticos e os elementos mais importantes do texto. Apresentação oral e entregar trabalho por escrito. (Tentar apresentar em inglês, mas não é obrigatório)
Ø Aspectos linguísticos:
1- Tempo verbal predominante
2- Cognatos e falsos cognatos
3- Formação de palavras
4- Grupos nominais
5- Elementos de referência mais importantes
6- Marcadores textuais
Ø Tema principal, fonte do texto, explicações principais sobre o texto e a discussão abaixo:
1- Quais são os aspectos principais do texto escolhido?
2- Quais foram as perguntas mais respondidas?
3- Nas respostas, quais foram as contribuições mais semelhantes e diferentes?
4- Quais foram as contribuições além do texto?
Nos dias 16 e 18 de novembro, alunos podem trazer as apresentações para o plantão de dúvidas com as professoras.
quarta-feira, 10 de novembro de 2010
quarta-feira, 13 de outubro de 2010
Cancer - One in three people develop cancer during their lives
CancerOne in three people develop cancer during their lives
Incidence
The four most common cancers – breast, lung, colorectal and prostate – accounted for more than half of the 245,300 new cases of malignant cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) registered in England in 2007. Of the total number of new cases, 123,100 were in males and 122,200 in females. Breast cancer accounted for 31 per cent of cases among women and prostate cancer for 25 per cent among men.Cancer is predominantly a disease of older people – only 0.5 per cent of cases registered in 2007 were in children (aged under 15) and 25 per cent were in people aged under 60. Between 1971 and 2007, the age-standardised incidence of cancer increased by around 21 per cent in males and 45 per cent in females.
Mortality
Over one in four people die from cancer. Cancer accounted for 30 per cent of all deaths in males and 25 per cent in females. The four most common cancers accounted for nearly half of the 127,800 deaths from cancer (including non-melanoma skin cancer) in England in 2007. Of these, 66,500 of the total were in males and 61,200 in females.
Survival
Survival varies by type of cancer and, for each cancer, by a number of factors including sex, age and socio-economic status.Five-year relative survival is very low (in the range 3–16 per cent) for cancers of the pancreas, lung, oesophagus, stomach and brain for patients diagnosed in England in 2001–06, compared with ovarian cancer (39 per cent), cancers of the bladder, colon and cervix (47–64 per cent), and cancers of the prostate and breast (77–82 per cent).For the majority of cancers, a higher proportion of women than men survived for at least five years after diagnosis. Among adults, the younger the age at diagnosis, the higher the survival for almost every cancer. Five-year survival rates for patients diagnosed in England in 2001–06 improved slightly or stayed stable for 16 of the 21 most common cancers compared to the period 2000–04.
Incidence
The four most common cancers – breast, lung, colorectal and prostate – accounted for more than half of the 245,300 new cases of malignant cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) registered in England in 2007. Of the total number of new cases, 123,100 were in males and 122,200 in females. Breast cancer accounted for 31 per cent of cases among women and prostate cancer for 25 per cent among men.Cancer is predominantly a disease of older people – only 0.5 per cent of cases registered in 2007 were in children (aged under 15) and 25 per cent were in people aged under 60. Between 1971 and 2007, the age-standardised incidence of cancer increased by around 21 per cent in males and 45 per cent in females.
Mortality
Over one in four people die from cancer. Cancer accounted for 30 per cent of all deaths in males and 25 per cent in females. The four most common cancers accounted for nearly half of the 127,800 deaths from cancer (including non-melanoma skin cancer) in England in 2007. Of these, 66,500 of the total were in males and 61,200 in females.
Survival
Survival varies by type of cancer and, for each cancer, by a number of factors including sex, age and socio-economic status.Five-year relative survival is very low (in the range 3–16 per cent) for cancers of the pancreas, lung, oesophagus, stomach and brain for patients diagnosed in England in 2001–06, compared with ovarian cancer (39 per cent), cancers of the bladder, colon and cervix (47–64 per cent), and cancers of the prostate and breast (77–82 per cent).For the majority of cancers, a higher proportion of women than men survived for at least five years after diagnosis. Among adults, the younger the age at diagnosis, the higher the survival for almost every cancer. Five-year survival rates for patients diagnosed in England in 2001–06 improved slightly or stayed stable for 16 of the 21 most common cancers compared to the period 2000–04.
Trade to expand by 9.5% in 2010 after a dismal 2009, WTO reports
Trade to expand by 9.5% in 2010 after a dismal 2009, WTO reports
After the sharpest decline in more than 70 years, world trade is set to rebound in 2010 by growing at 9.5%, according to WTO economists. “WTO rules and principles have assisted governments in keeping markets open and they now provide a platform from which trade can grow as the global economy improves. We see the light at the end of the tunnel and trade promises to be an important part of the recovery. But we must avoid derailing any economic revival through protectionism,” said Director-General Pascal Lamy.
Exports from developed economies are expected to increase by 7.5% in volume terms over the course of the year while shipments from the rest of the world (including developing economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States) should rise by around 11% as the world emerges from recession.
This strong expansion will help recover some, but by no means all, of the ground lost in 2009 when the global economic crisis sparked a 12.2% contraction in the volume of global trade — the largest such decline since World War II. Should trade continue to expand at its current pace, the economists predict, it would take another year for trade volumes to surpass the peak level of 2008. Measuring trade in volume terms provides a more reliable basis for annual comparisons since volume measurements are not distorted by changes in commodity prices or currency fluctuations, as they can be when trade is measured in dollars or other currencies.
One positive development in 2009 was the absence of any major increase in trade barriers imposed by WTO members in response to the crisis. The number of trade-restricting measures applied by governments has actually declined in recent months. However, significant slack remains in the global economy, and unemployment is likely to remain high throughout 2010 in many countries. Persistent unemployment may intensify protectionist pressures.
“During these difficult times, the multilateral trading system has once again proven its value. WTO rules and principles have assisted governments in keeping markets open and they now provide a platform from which trade can grow as the global economy improves. We see the light at the end of the tunnel and trade promises to be an important part of the recovery. But we must avoid derailing any economic revival through protectionism,” said WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy.
Why was the trade decline so large?
The 12% drop in the volume of world trade in 2009 was larger than most economists had predicted. This contraction also exceeded the WTO’s earlier forecast of a 10% decline. World trade volumes fell on three other occasions after 1965 (—0.2% in 2001, —2% in 1982, and —7% in 1975), but none of these episodes approached the magnitude of last year’s economic slide. Trade in current US dollar terms dropped even further than trade in volume terms (—23%), thanks in large part to falling prices of oil and other primary commodities.
Economists have suggested a number of reasons why trade declined so steeply, including the imposition of some of protectionist measures. But the consensus that has emerged centres on a sharp contraction in global demand as the primary cause. This was magnified by the product composition of the fall in demand, by the presence of global supply chains, and by the fact that the decline in trade was synchronized across countries and regions(1). The weakness in private sector demand was linked to the global recession triggered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States. What began in the US financial sector soon spread to the real economy, with global repercussions. Limited availability of trade finance also played a role.
Chart 1: Volume of world merchandise exports, 1965-2009(Annual % change)
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Table 1: Quarterly growth in world trade in manufactures by product, 2008Q1-2009Q3 (y-o-y percentage change in current US dollars
Source: WTO Secretariat estimates based on mirror data.
· Fonte:
www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres10_e/pr598_e.htm
Exports from developed economies are expected to increase by 7.5% in volume terms over the course of the year while shipments from the rest of the world (including developing economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States) should rise by around 11% as the world emerges from recession.
This strong expansion will help recover some, but by no means all, of the ground lost in 2009 when the global economic crisis sparked a 12.2% contraction in the volume of global trade — the largest such decline since World War II. Should trade continue to expand at its current pace, the economists predict, it would take another year for trade volumes to surpass the peak level of 2008. Measuring trade in volume terms provides a more reliable basis for annual comparisons since volume measurements are not distorted by changes in commodity prices or currency fluctuations, as they can be when trade is measured in dollars or other currencies.
One positive development in 2009 was the absence of any major increase in trade barriers imposed by WTO members in response to the crisis. The number of trade-restricting measures applied by governments has actually declined in recent months. However, significant slack remains in the global economy, and unemployment is likely to remain high throughout 2010 in many countries. Persistent unemployment may intensify protectionist pressures.
“During these difficult times, the multilateral trading system has once again proven its value. WTO rules and principles have assisted governments in keeping markets open and they now provide a platform from which trade can grow as the global economy improves. We see the light at the end of the tunnel and trade promises to be an important part of the recovery. But we must avoid derailing any economic revival through protectionism,” said WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy.
Why was the trade decline so large?
The 12% drop in the volume of world trade in 2009 was larger than most economists had predicted. This contraction also exceeded the WTO’s earlier forecast of a 10% decline. World trade volumes fell on three other occasions after 1965 (—0.2% in 2001, —2% in 1982, and —7% in 1975), but none of these episodes approached the magnitude of last year’s economic slide. Trade in current US dollar terms dropped even further than trade in volume terms (—23%), thanks in large part to falling prices of oil and other primary commodities.
Economists have suggested a number of reasons why trade declined so steeply, including the imposition of some of protectionist measures. But the consensus that has emerged centres on a sharp contraction in global demand as the primary cause. This was magnified by the product composition of the fall in demand, by the presence of global supply chains, and by the fact that the decline in trade was synchronized across countries and regions(1). The weakness in private sector demand was linked to the global recession triggered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States. What began in the US financial sector soon spread to the real economy, with global repercussions. Limited availability of trade finance also played a role.
Chart 1: Volume of world merchandise exports, 1965-2009(Annual % change)
Source: WTO Secretariat.
Table 1: Quarterly growth in world trade in manufactures by product, 2008Q1-2009Q3 (y-o-y percentage change in current US dollars
Source: WTO Secretariat estimates based on mirror data.
· Fonte:
www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres10_e/pr598_e.htm
Preliminary data of the 2010 Census already reveal changes in the Brazilian population pyramid
Preliminary data of the 2010 Census already reveal changes in the Brazilian population pyramid
With 80% of the Brazilian population already enumerated, preliminary data of the 2010 Census indicate that the Brazilian population pyramid has changed in the last decade. In 2000, children aged up to 4 represented 9.64% of the Brazilian population; nowadays they are 7.17%. Those aged 5 to 9 were 9.74%, a percentage that declined to 7.79%. The population aged up to 24 accounted for 49.68% of Brazilians 10 years ago; now it is 41.95%.
Conversely, at the end of the 2000 Census, approximately 24.5 thousand Brazilians aged over 100 were found. This year, with the operation still in progress, records already reach more than 17 thousand. “The decreased fertility and mortality rates, together with a longer life expectancy, explain this change in the demographic pattern”, states IBGE’s president Eduardo Pereira Nunes, during the release of the third balance of the 2010 Census data collection.
The Census has already counted 154 million Brazilians
The 2010 Census had already counted 80% of the Brazilian population, around 154.2 million people, up to 12 o’clock of this Monday, September 27. Besides, enumerators had visited 57.8 million households. Collection continues until October 31, and where it is already finished, the last step of data verification has begun. In this step, IBGE asks the help of residents, which may also receive the visit of professionals who will go to field after enumeration to supervise the conducted work.
At least 600 thousand households will receive supervisors’ visit
With data collection progress, supervision of information received by IBGE has begun. In this phase, when at least 600 thousand households will be visited, supervisors will go to field to check the quality of enumerators’ work. IBGE asks the population to welcome supervisors as friendly as they had welcomed enumerators.
Interviews continue up to October 31
Since August 1st, around 191 thousand enumerators have collected information for the 12th Brazilian Population Census, the first to be totally computerized. Up to October 31, they will visit all households in the 5,565 Brazilian municipalities, so that IBGE may reveal a new portrait of the country, by means of a set of demographic socio-economic and housing information.
Enumerators may be identified due to their uniform (the 2010Cansus waistcoat and cap, see images below), by their identity document (with name and photograph), which will be visible at the waistcoat pocket and by the data collection device (PDA). Their identity may be checked via a toll-free number (0800-7218181), from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m., and at the 2010 Census site, at www.censo2010.ibge.gov.br/recenseadores.php.
Each enumerator may organize a work schedule in order to interview at least a resident that may inform on all residents, in all the households designated to him. In case he cannot find someone during working hours, he may make visits at night, during weekends or even on holidays.
Population will greatly benefit from the Census
The Census is the main data source about population’s life in municipalities and localities. It collects information to define public policies at national, state and municipal level. Census results also help private initiative to take decisions on investments. Besides, based on censuses, it is possible to follow population’s growth, geographical distribution, and other characteristics in time.
That is why it is important to respond to the Census: it will enable society to calculate how many schools, hospitals and other public facilities are necessary in each locality, as well as infrastructure works. Also, with Census data, private initiative may plan investments, such as the selection of places to establish factories, shopping malls, schools, day care facilities, movie theaters, restaurants, etc.
Social CommunicationSeptember, 27, 2010
http://www.ibge.gov.br/english/presidencia/noticias/noticia_visualiza.php?id_noticia=1722&id_pagina=1
domingo, 3 de outubro de 2010
Television & Health
Television & Health
Television statistics
Influence of telvision on health
TV Free America - Statistics and essays on the influence of TV on health. National TV turnoff week.
ParentsTV - A grass roots effort against indecency, foul language and gratutious violence on TV
Television Statistics
According to the A.C. Nielsen Co., the average American watches more than 4 hours of TV each day (or 28 hours/week, or 2 months of nonstop TV-watching per year). In a 65-year life, that person will have spent 9 years glued to the tube.
I. FAMILY LIFE
Percentage of households that possess at least one television: 99
Number of TV sets in the average U.S. household: 2.24
Percentage of U.S. homes with three or more TV sets: 66
Number of hours per day that TV is on in an average U.S. home: 6 hours, 47 minutes
Percentage of Americans that regularly watch television while eating dinner: 66
Number of hours of TV watched annually by Americans: 250 billion
Value of that time assuming an average wage of S5/hour: S1.25 trillion
Percentage of Americans who pay for cable TV: 56
Number of videos rented daily in the U.S.: 6 million
Number of public library items checked out daily: 3 million
Percentage of Americans who say they watch too much TV: 49
II CHILDREN
Approximate number of studies examining TV's effects on children: 4,000
Number of minutes per week that parents spend in meaningful
conversation with their children: 3.5
Number of minutes per week that the average child watches television: 1,680
Percentage of day care centers that use TV during a typical day: 70
Percentage of parents who would like to limit their children's TV watching: 73
Percentage of 4-6 year-olds who, when asked to choose between watching TV
and spending time with their fathers, preferred television: 54
Hours per year the average American youth spends in school: 900 hours
Hours per year the average American youth watches television: 1500
III VIOLENCE
Number of murders seen on TV by the time an average child finishes elementary school: 8,000
Number of violent acts seen on TV by age 18: 200,000
Percentage of Americans who believe TV violence helps precipitate real life mayhem: 79
IV. COMMERCIALISM
Number of 30-second TV commercials seen in a year by an average child: 20,000
Number of TV commercials seen by the average person by age 65: 2 million
Percentage of survey participants (1993) who said that TV commercials
aimed at children make them too materialistic: 92
Rank of food products/fast-food restaurants among TV advertisements to kids: 1
Total spending by 100 leading TV advertisers in 1993: $15 billion
V. GENERAL
Percentage of local TV news broadcast time devoted to advertising: 30
Percentage devoted to stories about crime, disaster and war: 53.8
Percentage devoted to public service announcements: 0.7
Percentage of Americans who can name The Three Stooges: 59
Percentage who can name at least three justices of the U.S. Supreme Court: 17
Compiled by TV-Free America
1322 18th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Influence of Television
For decades, research and studies have demonstrated that heavy television-viewing may lead to serious health consequences. Now the American medical community, which has long-voiced its concerns about the nation's epidemic of violence, TV addiction and the passive, sedentary nature of TV-watching, is taking a more activist stance, demonstrated by its endorsement of National TV-Turnoff Week.
The average child will watch 8,000 murders on TV before finishing elementary school. By age eighteen, the average American has seen 200,000 acts of violence on TV, including 40,000 murders. At a meeting in Nashville, TN last July, Dr. John Nelson of the American Medical Association (an endorser of National TV-Turnoff Week) said that if 2,888 out of 3,000 studies show that TV violence is a casual factor in real-life mayhem, "it's a public health problem." The American Psychiatric Association addressed this problem in its endorsement of National TV-Turnoff Week, stating, "We have had a long-standing concern with the impact of television on behavior, especially among children."
Millions of Americans are so hooked on television that they fit the criteria for substance abuse as defined in the official psychiatric manual, according to Rutgers University psychologist and TV-Free America board member Robert Kubey. Heavy TV viewers exhibit five dependency symptoms--two more than necessary to arrive at a clinical diagnosis of substance abuse. These include: 1) using TV as a sedative; 2) indiscriminate viewing; 3) feeling loss of control while viewing; 4) feeling angry with oneself for watching too much; 5) inability to stop watching; and 6) feeling miserable when kept from watching.
Violence and addiction are not the only TV-related health problems. A National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey released in October 1995 found 4.7 million children between the ages of 6-17 (11% of this age group) to be severely overweight, more than twice the rate during the 1960's. The main culprits: inactivity (these same children average more than 22 hours of television-viewing a week) and a high-calorie diet. A 1991 study showed that there were an average of 200 junk food ads in four hours of children's Saturday morning cartoons.
According to William H. Deitz, pediatrician and prominent obesity expert at Tufts University School of Medicine, "The easiest way to reduce inactivity is to turn off the TV set. Almost anything else uses more energy than watching TV."
Children are not the only Americans suffering from weight problems; one-third of American adults are overweight. According to an American Journal of Public Health study, an adult who watches three hours of TV a day is far more likely to be obese than an adult who watches less than one hour.
Sometimes the problem is not too much weight; it's too little. Seventy-five percent of American women believe they are too fat, an image problem that often leads to bulimia or anorexia. Sound strange? Not when one takes into account that female models and actresses are twenty-three percent thinner than the average woman and thinner than ninety-five percent of the female population.
Television statistics
Influence of telvision on health
TV Free America - Statistics and essays on the influence of TV on health. National TV turnoff week.
ParentsTV - A grass roots effort against indecency, foul language and gratutious violence on TV
Television Statistics
According to the A.C. Nielsen Co., the average American watches more than 4 hours of TV each day (or 28 hours/week, or 2 months of nonstop TV-watching per year). In a 65-year life, that person will have spent 9 years glued to the tube.
I. FAMILY LIFE
Percentage of households that possess at least one television: 99
Number of TV sets in the average U.S. household: 2.24
Percentage of U.S. homes with three or more TV sets: 66
Number of hours per day that TV is on in an average U.S. home: 6 hours, 47 minutes
Percentage of Americans that regularly watch television while eating dinner: 66
Number of hours of TV watched annually by Americans: 250 billion
Value of that time assuming an average wage of S5/hour: S1.25 trillion
Percentage of Americans who pay for cable TV: 56
Number of videos rented daily in the U.S.: 6 million
Number of public library items checked out daily: 3 million
Percentage of Americans who say they watch too much TV: 49
II CHILDREN
Approximate number of studies examining TV's effects on children: 4,000
Number of minutes per week that parents spend in meaningful
conversation with their children: 3.5
Number of minutes per week that the average child watches television: 1,680
Percentage of day care centers that use TV during a typical day: 70
Percentage of parents who would like to limit their children's TV watching: 73
Percentage of 4-6 year-olds who, when asked to choose between watching TV
and spending time with their fathers, preferred television: 54
Hours per year the average American youth spends in school: 900 hours
Hours per year the average American youth watches television: 1500
III VIOLENCE
Number of murders seen on TV by the time an average child finishes elementary school: 8,000
Number of violent acts seen on TV by age 18: 200,000
Percentage of Americans who believe TV violence helps precipitate real life mayhem: 79
IV. COMMERCIALISM
Number of 30-second TV commercials seen in a year by an average child: 20,000
Number of TV commercials seen by the average person by age 65: 2 million
Percentage of survey participants (1993) who said that TV commercials
aimed at children make them too materialistic: 92
Rank of food products/fast-food restaurants among TV advertisements to kids: 1
Total spending by 100 leading TV advertisers in 1993: $15 billion
V. GENERAL
Percentage of local TV news broadcast time devoted to advertising: 30
Percentage devoted to stories about crime, disaster and war: 53.8
Percentage devoted to public service announcements: 0.7
Percentage of Americans who can name The Three Stooges: 59
Percentage who can name at least three justices of the U.S. Supreme Court: 17
Compiled by TV-Free America
1322 18th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Influence of Television
For decades, research and studies have demonstrated that heavy television-viewing may lead to serious health consequences. Now the American medical community, which has long-voiced its concerns about the nation's epidemic of violence, TV addiction and the passive, sedentary nature of TV-watching, is taking a more activist stance, demonstrated by its endorsement of National TV-Turnoff Week.
The average child will watch 8,000 murders on TV before finishing elementary school. By age eighteen, the average American has seen 200,000 acts of violence on TV, including 40,000 murders. At a meeting in Nashville, TN last July, Dr. John Nelson of the American Medical Association (an endorser of National TV-Turnoff Week) said that if 2,888 out of 3,000 studies show that TV violence is a casual factor in real-life mayhem, "it's a public health problem." The American Psychiatric Association addressed this problem in its endorsement of National TV-Turnoff Week, stating, "We have had a long-standing concern with the impact of television on behavior, especially among children."
Millions of Americans are so hooked on television that they fit the criteria for substance abuse as defined in the official psychiatric manual, according to Rutgers University psychologist and TV-Free America board member Robert Kubey. Heavy TV viewers exhibit five dependency symptoms--two more than necessary to arrive at a clinical diagnosis of substance abuse. These include: 1) using TV as a sedative; 2) indiscriminate viewing; 3) feeling loss of control while viewing; 4) feeling angry with oneself for watching too much; 5) inability to stop watching; and 6) feeling miserable when kept from watching.
Violence and addiction are not the only TV-related health problems. A National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey released in October 1995 found 4.7 million children between the ages of 6-17 (11% of this age group) to be severely overweight, more than twice the rate during the 1960's. The main culprits: inactivity (these same children average more than 22 hours of television-viewing a week) and a high-calorie diet. A 1991 study showed that there were an average of 200 junk food ads in four hours of children's Saturday morning cartoons.
According to William H. Deitz, pediatrician and prominent obesity expert at Tufts University School of Medicine, "The easiest way to reduce inactivity is to turn off the TV set. Almost anything else uses more energy than watching TV."
Children are not the only Americans suffering from weight problems; one-third of American adults are overweight. According to an American Journal of Public Health study, an adult who watches three hours of TV a day is far more likely to be obese than an adult who watches less than one hour.
Sometimes the problem is not too much weight; it's too little. Seventy-five percent of American women believe they are too fat, an image problem that often leads to bulimia or anorexia. Sound strange? Not when one takes into account that female models and actresses are twenty-three percent thinner than the average woman and thinner than ninety-five percent of the female population.
Learning on Demand: Online Education in the United States, 2009
of http://sloanconsortium.org/publications/survey/learning_on_demand_sr2010
Acesso em 24 de set de 2010
Acesso em 24 de set de 2010
Learning on Demand: Online Education in the United States, 2009
The complete report, “Learning on Demand: Online Education in the United States, 2009” is availablehere.
Learning on Demand: Online Education in the United States, 2009 represents the seventh annual report on the state of online learning in U.S. higher education. This year’s study, like those for the previous six years, is aimed at answering some of the fundamental questions about the nature and extent of online education. Supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and based on responses from more than 2,500 colleges and universities, the study addresses the following key questions:
How Many Students are Learning Online?
Background: For the past six years online enrollments have been growing substantially faster than overall higher education enrollments. The expectation of academic leaders has been that these enrollments would continue their substantial growth for at least another year. Do the measured enrollments match these lofty expectations?
The evidence: Online enrollments have continued to grow at rates far in excess of the total higher education student population, with the most recent data demonstrating no signs of slowing.
· Over 4.6 million students were taking at least one online course during the fall 2008 term; a 17 percent increase over the number reported the previous year.
· The 17 percent growth rate for online enrollments far exceeds the 1.2 percent growth of the overall higher education student population.
· More than one in four college and university students now take at least one course online.
What is the Impact of the Economy on Online Education?
Background: Bad economic times have historically been good for higher education enrollments, either because the decreased availability of good jobs encourages more people to seek education, or because those currently employed seek to improve their chances for advancement by advancing their education.
The evidence: Academic leaders at all types of institutions report increased demand for face-to-face and online courses, with those at public institutions seeing the largest impact. In all cases the demand for online offerings is greater than that for the corresponding face-to-face offerings.
· Over one-half (54 percent) of institutions report that the economic downturn has increased demand for existing face-to-face courses.
· The economic impact has been greatest on demand for online courses, with 66 percent of institutions reporting increased demand for new courses and programs and 73 percent seeing increased demand forexisting online courses and programs.
· The economic impact on institutional budgets has been mixed; 50 percent have seen their budgets decrease as a result, but 25 percent have experienced an increase.
What Contingency Plans do Institutions Have for H1N1?
Background: A series of questions about the effect of the H1N1 on institutions and the extent and type of contingency plan were asked of chief academic officers. Of particular interest is the use of online as part of the contingency plan.
The evidence: Proponents of online learning have long posited that moving face-to-face classes online could become an important component of academic continuity planning. A potential H1N1 pandemic is such an event that might trigger such planning.
· Over two-thirds of institutions report that they have a formal contingency plan in place to deal with a possible disruption from the H1N1 flu.
· Substituting online for face-to-face classes is a component of 67 percent of H1N1 contingency plans.
· Twenty percent of institutions with no current online offerings include introducing online classes as part of their contingency plans.
Is Online Learning Strategic?
Background: Last year’s report showed a very small decline in the number of chief academic officers declaring online education as critical to their continued growth. Is there a continued decline in 2009?
The evidence: This year’s results show a very small increase from the previous year and begin to signal that a plateau may have been reached by institutions believing that online is critical to their long-term strategy.
· The proportion of institutions that see online education as a critical component of their long-term strategy appears to have reached a plateau over the past several years.
· Baccalaureate institutions continue to be the least likely to consider online to be strategic, with only 33 percent agreeing.
· Public institutions (74 percent) are more likely to believe that online is critical for their long-term strategy than either private for-profit (51 percent) or private nonprofit (50 percent) institutions.
Has Faculty Acceptance of Online Increased?
Background: The perception of chief academic officers of faculty acceptance of online teaching and learning has changed little in the last six years.
The evidence: While the number of programs and courses online continue to grow, the acceptance of this learning modality by faculty has been relatively constant since first measured in 2002.
· Less than one-third of chief academic officers believe that their faculty accept the value and legitimacy of online education. This percent has changed little over the last six years.
· The proportion of chief academic officers that report their faculty accept online education varies widely by type of school but reaches a majority in none.
Do Faculty Receiving Training for Teaching Online?
Background: For faculty teaching online the type of pedagogy used may differ significantly from face-to-face classes. The growth of online courses and programs has increased the need for faculty to become comfortable with online teaching and gain the necessary skills to make online courses a success.
The evidence: There is no one approach being taken by institutions in providing training for their teaching faculty. Most institutions use a combination of mentoring and training options.
· Only 19 percent of institutions with online offerings report that they have no training or mentoring programs for their teaching faculty.
· The most common training approaches for online faculty are internally run training courses (65 percent) and informal mentoring (59 percent).
quinta-feira, 23 de setembro de 2010
Major Religions of the World Ranked by Number of Adherents
Major Religions of the World Ranked by Number of Adherents
• Christianity: 2.1 billion
• Islam: 1.5 billion
• Secular/Nonreligious/Agnostic/Atheist: 1.1 billion
• Hinduism: 900 million
• Chinese traditional religion: 394 million
• Buddhism: 376 million
• primal-indigenous: 300 million
• African Traditional & Diasporic: 100 million
• Sikhism: 23 million
• Juche: 19 million
• Spiritism: 15 million
• Judaism: 14 million
• Baha'i: 7 million
• Jainism: 4.2 million
• Shinto: 4 million
• Cao Dai: 4 million
• Zoroastrianism: 2.6 million
• Tenrikyo: 2 million
• Neo-Paganism: 1 million
• Unitarian-Universalism: 800 thousand
• Rastafarianism: 600 thousand
• Scientology: 500 thousand
This listing is not a comprehensive list of all religions, only the "major" ones . There are distinct religions other than the ones listed above. But this list accounts for the religions of over 98% of the world's population.
How are adherents counted?
There are five main methods for determining the number of adherents in a faith group:
1. Organizational reporting: Religious bodies (such as churches or denominations) are asked how many adherents or members they have. This is the simplest and least expensive method, but it can be highly unreliable. Different faith groups measure membership differently. Some count as members only those who are actively attending services or who have passed through a lengthy initiation process. Others groups count all who have been baptized as infants and are thus on the church records, even though some of those people may have joined other faith groups as adults. Some groups over-report membership and others under-report membership. When asked what religion they consider themselves to be a part of, many may name a religion that does not have them on their rolls. In the United States, for instance, three times as many people claim to be Unitarian Universalists than are actually on church records.
2. Census records: Many countries periodically conduct a comprehensive household-by-household census. Religious preference is often a question included in these census counts. This is a highly reliable method for determining the religious self-identification of a given population. But censuses are usually conducted infrequently. The latest census may be too old to indicate recent trends in religious membership. Also, many countries either have no accurate census data, or do not include questions regarding religious affiliation. It has been over fifty years since the United States included such a question in its national census, but Canada, India, New Zealand, Australia and other countries have very thorough, recent census data on the topic.
3. Polls and Surveys: Statistical sampling using surveys and polls are used to determine affiliation based on religious self-identification. The accuracy of these surveys depends largely on the quality of the study and especially the size of the sample population. Rarely are statistical surveys of religious affiliation done with large enough sample sizes to accurately count the adherents of small minority religious groups.
4. Estimates based on indirect data: Many adherent counts are only obtained by estimates based on indirect data rather than direct questioning or directly from membership roles. Wiccan groups have traditionally been secretive and often their numbers can only be estimated based on magazine circulations, attendance at conferences, etc. The counts of many ethnic-based faith groups such as tribal religions are generally based on the size of associated ethnic groups. Adherents of some tribal religions (such as Yoruba) are sometimes counted simply by counting the members of the tribe and assuming everybody in it is an adherent of the religion. Counts of Eastern Orthodox religious bodies are often done the same way. Such estimates may be highly unreliable.
5. Field work: To count some small groups, or to count the number of adherents a larger group has within a specific geographical area, researchers sometimes do "field work" to count adherents. This is often the only way to count members of small tribal groups or semi-secretive, publicity-shy sects. Field work may involve contacting leaders of individual congregations, temples, etc., conducting interviews with adherents, counting living within enclaves of the group, or counting those participating in key activities. There is substantial overlap between "estimates" and "field work."
• Christianity: 2.1 billion
• Islam: 1.5 billion
• Secular/Nonreligious/Agnostic/Atheist: 1.1 billion
• Hinduism: 900 million
• Chinese traditional religion: 394 million
• Buddhism: 376 million
• primal-indigenous: 300 million
• African Traditional & Diasporic: 100 million
• Sikhism: 23 million
• Juche: 19 million
• Spiritism: 15 million
• Judaism: 14 million
• Baha'i: 7 million
• Jainism: 4.2 million
• Shinto: 4 million
• Cao Dai: 4 million
• Zoroastrianism: 2.6 million
• Tenrikyo: 2 million
• Neo-Paganism: 1 million
• Unitarian-Universalism: 800 thousand
• Rastafarianism: 600 thousand
• Scientology: 500 thousand
This listing is not a comprehensive list of all religions, only the "major" ones . There are distinct religions other than the ones listed above. But this list accounts for the religions of over 98% of the world's population.
How are adherents counted?
There are five main methods for determining the number of adherents in a faith group:
1. Organizational reporting: Religious bodies (such as churches or denominations) are asked how many adherents or members they have. This is the simplest and least expensive method, but it can be highly unreliable. Different faith groups measure membership differently. Some count as members only those who are actively attending services or who have passed through a lengthy initiation process. Others groups count all who have been baptized as infants and are thus on the church records, even though some of those people may have joined other faith groups as adults. Some groups over-report membership and others under-report membership. When asked what religion they consider themselves to be a part of, many may name a religion that does not have them on their rolls. In the United States, for instance, three times as many people claim to be Unitarian Universalists than are actually on church records.
2. Census records: Many countries periodically conduct a comprehensive household-by-household census. Religious preference is often a question included in these census counts. This is a highly reliable method for determining the religious self-identification of a given population. But censuses are usually conducted infrequently. The latest census may be too old to indicate recent trends in religious membership. Also, many countries either have no accurate census data, or do not include questions regarding religious affiliation. It has been over fifty years since the United States included such a question in its national census, but Canada, India, New Zealand, Australia and other countries have very thorough, recent census data on the topic.
3. Polls and Surveys: Statistical sampling using surveys and polls are used to determine affiliation based on religious self-identification. The accuracy of these surveys depends largely on the quality of the study and especially the size of the sample population. Rarely are statistical surveys of religious affiliation done with large enough sample sizes to accurately count the adherents of small minority religious groups.
4. Estimates based on indirect data: Many adherent counts are only obtained by estimates based on indirect data rather than direct questioning or directly from membership roles. Wiccan groups have traditionally been secretive and often their numbers can only be estimated based on magazine circulations, attendance at conferences, etc. The counts of many ethnic-based faith groups such as tribal religions are generally based on the size of associated ethnic groups. Adherents of some tribal religions (such as Yoruba) are sometimes counted simply by counting the members of the tribe and assuming everybody in it is an adherent of the religion. Counts of Eastern Orthodox religious bodies are often done the same way. Such estimates may be highly unreliable.
5. Field work: To count some small groups, or to count the number of adherents a larger group has within a specific geographical area, researchers sometimes do "field work" to count adherents. This is often the only way to count members of small tribal groups or semi-secretive, publicity-shy sects. Field work may involve contacting leaders of individual congregations, temples, etc., conducting interviews with adherents, counting living within enclaves of the group, or counting those participating in key activities. There is substantial overlap between "estimates" and "field work."
14 Exit Poll Statistics About Obama’s Victory
14 Exit Poll Statistics About Obama’s Victory
There’s not much more that I can say that others have not said already regarding the significance of Barack Obama’s election as our next President: historic, monumental, amazing, inspiring, emotional, and quite simple, awesome. As a sociologist and demographer, I’d like to offer a few statistics on his election to be our next President:
• 136.6 million Americans voted, representing a 64.1% turnout rate, the highest since 65.7 percent in 1908.
• Obama is the first Democrat to receive more than 50 percent of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
From CNN’s exit poll tabulations:
• Obama received 49% of all the male votes (vs. 48% for McCain) and 56% of the female votes (vs. 43% for McCain). But once you break it down by race, Obama only received 41% of the White male vote (vs. 57% for McCain) and 46% of the White female vote (vs. 53% for McCain).
• 95% of African Americans, 66% of Latinos, and 61% of Asian Americans voted for Obama. Along with the previous statistic, what this tells us is that while large numbers of Whites supported Obama, ultimately non-Whites helped put him over the top.
• 66% of voters under the age of 30 voted for Obama.
• 52% of voters making $200,000 or more voted for Obama (vs. 46% for McCain).
• By level of education, the groups that voted for Obama the most were those at both ends of the spectrum — those who have no high school degree and those with a postgraduate degree.
• 54% of Catholics voted for Obama (vs. 45% for McCain), although among White Catholics, 47% voted for Obama while 52% for McCain.
• 50% of voters living in the suburbs voted for Obama (vs. 48% for McCain).
• Among voters who felt that their taxes would go up if Obama were elected President, 43% still voted for him.
• 64% of all voters felt that McCain unfairly attacked Obama, while only 49% of all voters felt Obama unfairly attacked McCain.
• 47% of all voters felt that, regardless of who is President, race relations are likely to get better in the next few years, and of those, 70% voted for Obama. In contrast, 15% felt that race relations are likely to get worse and of those, 70% voted for McCain.
• 9% of voters said that the candidate’s race was an important factor and of those, 53% voted for Obama.
• 58% of voters said that issues, rather than personal qualities, were more important to them and of those, 60% voted for Obama. In contrast, 59% of those who believed personal qualities were more important to them voted for McCain.
For me, the most telling and interesting of these statistics is first, that shows 52% of voters making at least $200,000 voted for Obama versus 46% voting for McCain. In my opinion, that is pretty astounding — those in the upper 6%-7% of the nation in terms of wealth supported Obama more than McCain, even though their taxes are likely to go up slightly. I give these voters a lot of credit for supporting Obama and goes a long way to counteract the stereotype of them as caring only about their wallets.
But perhaps the most significant statistic is how Obama captured almost all of the African American votes and a huge percentage of the Latino and Asian American votes and how, most likely, this was likely a big factor in helping to put him over the top.
It is certainly true that White votes still outnumbered non-White votes for Obama and that in the end, the scope of Obama’s victory shows that he has significant, broad-based support from Americans of all racial backgrounds. Nonetheless, I think it’s pretty clear that the Latinos and Asian Americans did constitute a crucial “swing vote” and ultimately, they overwhelmingly rallied to Obama’s support.
While observers, commentators, and scholars will debate this particular issue for the foreseeable future, it does appear that, combined with their continuing population growth, Latino and Asian American voters are poised to have this kind of potential impact and power for years to come.
There’s not much more that I can say that others have not said already regarding the significance of Barack Obama’s election as our next President: historic, monumental, amazing, inspiring, emotional, and quite simple, awesome. As a sociologist and demographer, I’d like to offer a few statistics on his election to be our next President:
• 136.6 million Americans voted, representing a 64.1% turnout rate, the highest since 65.7 percent in 1908.
• Obama is the first Democrat to receive more than 50 percent of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
From CNN’s exit poll tabulations:
• Obama received 49% of all the male votes (vs. 48% for McCain) and 56% of the female votes (vs. 43% for McCain). But once you break it down by race, Obama only received 41% of the White male vote (vs. 57% for McCain) and 46% of the White female vote (vs. 53% for McCain).
• 95% of African Americans, 66% of Latinos, and 61% of Asian Americans voted for Obama. Along with the previous statistic, what this tells us is that while large numbers of Whites supported Obama, ultimately non-Whites helped put him over the top.
• 66% of voters under the age of 30 voted for Obama.
• 52% of voters making $200,000 or more voted for Obama (vs. 46% for McCain).
• By level of education, the groups that voted for Obama the most were those at both ends of the spectrum — those who have no high school degree and those with a postgraduate degree.
• 54% of Catholics voted for Obama (vs. 45% for McCain), although among White Catholics, 47% voted for Obama while 52% for McCain.
• 50% of voters living in the suburbs voted for Obama (vs. 48% for McCain).
• Among voters who felt that their taxes would go up if Obama were elected President, 43% still voted for him.
• 64% of all voters felt that McCain unfairly attacked Obama, while only 49% of all voters felt Obama unfairly attacked McCain.
• 47% of all voters felt that, regardless of who is President, race relations are likely to get better in the next few years, and of those, 70% voted for Obama. In contrast, 15% felt that race relations are likely to get worse and of those, 70% voted for McCain.
• 9% of voters said that the candidate’s race was an important factor and of those, 53% voted for Obama.
• 58% of voters said that issues, rather than personal qualities, were more important to them and of those, 60% voted for Obama. In contrast, 59% of those who believed personal qualities were more important to them voted for McCain.
For me, the most telling and interesting of these statistics is first, that shows 52% of voters making at least $200,000 voted for Obama versus 46% voting for McCain. In my opinion, that is pretty astounding — those in the upper 6%-7% of the nation in terms of wealth supported Obama more than McCain, even though their taxes are likely to go up slightly. I give these voters a lot of credit for supporting Obama and goes a long way to counteract the stereotype of them as caring only about their wallets.
But perhaps the most significant statistic is how Obama captured almost all of the African American votes and a huge percentage of the Latino and Asian American votes and how, most likely, this was likely a big factor in helping to put him over the top.
It is certainly true that White votes still outnumbered non-White votes for Obama and that in the end, the scope of Obama’s victory shows that he has significant, broad-based support from Americans of all racial backgrounds. Nonetheless, I think it’s pretty clear that the Latinos and Asian Americans did constitute a crucial “swing vote” and ultimately, they overwhelmingly rallied to Obama’s support.
While observers, commentators, and scholars will debate this particular issue for the foreseeable future, it does appear that, combined with their continuing population growth, Latino and Asian American voters are poised to have this kind of potential impact and power for years to come.
quarta-feira, 15 de setembro de 2010
SCHEDULE
Sept 16 - Verb Tenses
Sept 21 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Sept 23 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Sept 28 - Nominal Groups
Sept 30 - Nominal Groups
Oct 5 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Oct 7 - Word Formation
Oct 14 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Oct 19 - Text Markers
Oct 21 - Dictionary Use
Oct 26 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Oct 28 - On-line Questionnaire (there is no class)
Nov 09 - Presentation Guidelines + General Review
Nov 11- General Review
Nov 16 - Presentation Guidelines
Nov 18 - Presentation Guidelines
Nov 23 - Presentations
Nov 25 - Presentations
Nov 30 - Presentations
Dez 02 - Presentations
Dez 07 - Presentation Feedback
Dez 09 - Last class
Sept 21 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Sept 23 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Sept 28 - Nominal Groups
Sept 30 - Nominal Groups
Oct 5 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Oct 7 - Word Formation
Oct 14 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Oct 19 - Text Markers
Oct 21 - Dictionary Use
Oct 26 - text discussion at the bog (there is no class)
Oct 28 - On-line Questionnaire (there is no class)
Nov 09 - Presentation Guidelines + General Review
Nov 11- General Review
Nov 16 - Presentation Guidelines
Nov 18 - Presentation Guidelines
Nov 23 - Presentations
Nov 25 - Presentations
Nov 30 - Presentations
Dez 02 - Presentations
Dez 07 - Presentation Feedback
Dez 09 - Last class
TEXT DISCUSSION GUIDELINES
Questions for text discussion at the blog
You may choose two of the following questions to answer/discuss. You can comment on a colleague’s response (as your contribution), but you must not use the same ideas.
1. Which were the methods of data collection and analysis? Which are the elements in the text that support your answer? In case they are not explicit in the text, please conduct a research, infer and justify your answer (conclusions).
2. What is the importance of statistics to:
A. the science that the text refers to?
B. the society as a whole?
3. What is the statistician's role in the accomplishment of the study reported in the text?
4. What new information have you learned from the text as:
A. a citizen?
B. a professional (statistician)?
5. Based on your background knowledge, what information could you add to the text? Why?
6. What is your opinion about the information presented in the text? Give reasons to support your idea.
You may choose two of the following questions to answer/discuss. You can comment on a colleague’s response (as your contribution), but you must not use the same ideas.
1. Which were the methods of data collection and analysis? Which are the elements in the text that support your answer? In case they are not explicit in the text, please conduct a research, infer and justify your answer (conclusions).
2. What is the importance of statistics to:
A. the science that the text refers to?
B. the society as a whole?
3. What is the statistician's role in the accomplishment of the study reported in the text?
4. What new information have you learned from the text as:
A. a citizen?
B. a professional (statistician)?
5. Based on your background knowledge, what information could you add to the text? Why?
6. What is your opinion about the information presented in the text? Give reasons to support your idea.
terça-feira, 14 de setembro de 2010
The importance of forensic statistics
Forensic statistics is the application of statistics to forensic science and the law.
Broadly speaking, forensic science is the analysis of traces of evidence (such as body fluids, glass fragments, footprints and drugs) left at the scene of a crime by the criminal, victim or others. This evidence may be used subsequently to either implicate or exonerate a person suspected of committing that crime, or just to gain further insight into the incident. Over the years, with increasing technological advancement, forensic science has become a key part of criminal investigations worldwide.
But forensic science doesn't just involve identifying traces of evidence – sometimes it isn't obvious just what a piece of evidence really is. Other important questions that need to be answered are just how the evidence came to be at the crime scene, where did it originally come from, and who left it there. This suggests a natural role for statistics, as these questions can typically only be answered in terms of probabilities. So it is not surprising that the primary task of forensic statisticians is to evaluate any evidence found at a crime scene, so that this evidence can be appropriately presented to a jury in court. This task obviously carries great responsibility.
The advent of DNA profiling in the 1980s brought a big change in the way the legal system viewed quantitative data. Now a quantitative approach is being requested in many areas, far removed from the original area of DNA profiling. The earlier research and development work is being applied and further work is being done to tackle the increasingly more complex cases which arise in bringing a sound statistical approach to the assessment of evidence.
What does this career entail?
Please note first that forensic statisticians can operate under various guises (further details can be found in the "Who employs forensic statisticians?" section). At one end of the scale, there are people employed by forensic science units specifically to analyse forensic data; at the other end, there are some university lecturers who specialise in carrying out statistical research on forensic matters and act as consultant forensic statisticians when required. The methods of statistical analysis used will usually be similar, no matter where on this scale a forensic statistician is operating.
For an appropriate evaluation of evidence, a comparison of probabilities of the evidence under two different propositions is required. These propositions are usually those put forward by the prosecution and the defence. There are advanced statistical methods for doing this (for readers who are technically inclined, they are based on likelihood ratios or Bayes' factors). Much theoretical work has been done in the development of these methods. Calculations based on them might sometimes be fairly straightforward, though it also often turns out that there are non-standard issues to consider.
One example of casework that a forensic statistician may be involved with is DNA profiling, which is a powerful method of identification using genetics. Often, the evidence to be evaluated involves human (or sometimes animal) biological material such as blood, semen or vaginal fluid. Considerable work has been done in statistical and population genetics in assessing the importance of such evidence. Applications, however, are often not restricted to simple cases with one sample of DNA left at the scene of a crime and one suspect. Complications very often arise, for example because relatives may be involved, or the suspect may have been identified by a search through a DNA profile database, or the sample found at the crime scene may be a mixture of body fluids from more than one person. More advanced statistical methods are required in such situations.
Another role of a forensic statistician relates to sampling problems and determination of sample size. In some cases, it is necessary to examine a consignment of similar-looking items, and it is often not practical to examine every item. This may be purely on financial grounds but may be on health grounds also. The question then arises as to how many items should be examined on a sampling basis. For example, the consignment to be examined may be a set of CDs, some of which are thought to contain pornographic material. Then it is desirable for the examining officers to examine as few CDs as is commensurate with a good description of the proportion of the CDs which are illicit. The sample size determination is really just a quality control problem; there are UN Guidelines where the problem concerns drugs.
Finally, an important part of being a forensic statistician, as indeed it is for any statistician, is the ability to communicate results effectively to non-statisticians. Forensic statisticians are often required to attend court cases as "expert witnesses". This involves reporting calculated probabilities, or other statistical measures, to the jury, and explaining to them how the calculations were performed. This is a challenge in itself, as the jury will typically consist of people who have little knowledge of statistical methods, and is further complicated by the need to choose careful wording (so as not to "lead" the jury into a decision on guilt or innocence of a defendant).
Who employs forensic statisticians?
There is an increasing need for people to understand the role and application of probability and statistics in forensic science and the law. However, there are essentially no jobs and no career structure in forensic statistics in the UK as such.
The Forensic Science Service (FSS) of England and Wales has an Interpretation Group which considers problems of evidence evaluation, but it is small in size. In many cases, if the FSS wants help with a problem, it employs consultants. The Home Office has a Policing and Reducing Crime Unit which offers occasional contract work for statisticians to assist in particular projects. Individual police forces and law firms may also seek assistance with particular cases.
The area of DNA profiling is also growing. Although not strictly forensic statistics, there may be opportunities for statisticians in companies specialising in the analysis of DNA profiles for paternity and kinship testing.
The main route into a career involving forensic statistics is essentially as an academic, either as a university lecturer or specifically as a researcher. You would probably need to gain a lecturing or research post in a mathematics or statistics university department, and then pursue a research or consultancy path as part of your day-to-day work there. There are some research institutes that primarily focus on forensic science and statistics, notably the Joseph Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics and Legal Reasoning
What qualifications are typically required?
As we have explained above, it is often necessary to follow a career as an academic in order to be involved with forensic statistics, and the qualifications required for this are outlined on our career as a university lecturer page. For other positions, within forensic science units (UK-based or otherwise) or companies, an appropriate undergraduate degree is likely to be a minimum requirement, with postgraduate experience an advantage.
Continuing professional development
Forensic statisticians need to continue their personal and professional development. This can be done in several ways.
Most universities offer staff development programmes in which you may take short courses on almost anything, including computing software, presentational skills, management development and teaching skills. Even if you do not work in a university, at least some courses of a similar nature are likely to be available.
The statistical methods on which your work is based are also, of course, used in other application areas. You will probably find that there are conferences where the latest developments in these methods are explored; you might be able to submit papers or abstracts about your statistical work and attend the conferences, when you could have the opportunity to present your own papers as well as attend other presentations. Many conferences also have workshops in which you could participate. You are also likely to be encouraged to write up the statistical aspects of your work as formal papers for academic journals.
It will be extremely important to develop your communication skills, so that you can report your findings effectively to members of the police and legal professions, and all the more so if you will actually be appearing in court as an expert witness. It will also be important to gain some understanding of the legal system.
Your professional work as a statistician might well make it appropriate for you to seek the professional qualification of Chartered Statistician (CStat), which would give you a professional affiliation with the Royal Statistical Society.
Salaries and opportunities for advancement
As we have explained, work as a forensic statistician is likely to be on a consultancy basis, often coupled with a career as an academic. So there is, in effect, no salary structure attached to a career as a forensic statistician per se. General information about salaries in the academic sector can be found on our career as a university lecturer page. This also contains information about academic career structures and promotion prospects.
How to locate job vacancies for forensic statisticians
Again, the absence of a career as such means that there are unlikely to be advertisements explicitly for "forensic statisticians" as such, though there may be opportunities for statisticians and programmers within government or commercial forensic science and DNA profiling organisations. Any advertisements might appear in several places, including the following:
Daily newspapers (The Times, The Guardian and The Independent are probably the best).
The newsletter RSS NEWS of the Royal Statistical Society which is issued monthly to all members of the Society.
Electronic mailing lists (such as Allstat).
New Scientist.
Forensic statistics is the application of statistics to forensic science and the law.
Broadly speaking, forensic science is the analysis of traces of evidence (such as body fluids, glass fragments, footprints and drugs) left at the scene of a crime by the criminal, victim or others. This evidence may be used subsequently to either implicate or exonerate a person suspected of committing that crime, or just to gain further insight into the incident. Over the years, with increasing technological advancement, forensic science has become a key part of criminal investigations worldwide.
But forensic science doesn't just involve identifying traces of evidence – sometimes it isn't obvious just what a piece of evidence really is. Other important questions that need to be answered are just how the evidence came to be at the crime scene, where did it originally come from, and who left it there. This suggests a natural role for statistics, as these questions can typically only be answered in terms of probabilities. So it is not surprising that the primary task of forensic statisticians is to evaluate any evidence found at a crime scene, so that this evidence can be appropriately presented to a jury in court. This task obviously carries great responsibility.
The advent of DNA profiling in the 1980s brought a big change in the way the legal system viewed quantitative data. Now a quantitative approach is being requested in many areas, far removed from the original area of DNA profiling. The earlier research and development work is being applied and further work is being done to tackle the increasingly more complex cases which arise in bringing a sound statistical approach to the assessment of evidence.
What does this career entail?
Please note first that forensic statisticians can operate under various guises (further details can be found in the "Who employs forensic statisticians?" section). At one end of the scale, there are people employed by forensic science units specifically to analyse forensic data; at the other end, there are some university lecturers who specialise in carrying out statistical research on forensic matters and act as consultant forensic statisticians when required. The methods of statistical analysis used will usually be similar, no matter where on this scale a forensic statistician is operating.
For an appropriate evaluation of evidence, a comparison of probabilities of the evidence under two different propositions is required. These propositions are usually those put forward by the prosecution and the defence. There are advanced statistical methods for doing this (for readers who are technically inclined, they are based on likelihood ratios or Bayes' factors). Much theoretical work has been done in the development of these methods. Calculations based on them might sometimes be fairly straightforward, though it also often turns out that there are non-standard issues to consider.
One example of casework that a forensic statistician may be involved with is DNA profiling, which is a powerful method of identification using genetics. Often, the evidence to be evaluated involves human (or sometimes animal) biological material such as blood, semen or vaginal fluid. Considerable work has been done in statistical and population genetics in assessing the importance of such evidence. Applications, however, are often not restricted to simple cases with one sample of DNA left at the scene of a crime and one suspect. Complications very often arise, for example because relatives may be involved, or the suspect may have been identified by a search through a DNA profile database, or the sample found at the crime scene may be a mixture of body fluids from more than one person. More advanced statistical methods are required in such situations.
Another role of a forensic statistician relates to sampling problems and determination of sample size. In some cases, it is necessary to examine a consignment of similar-looking items, and it is often not practical to examine every item. This may be purely on financial grounds but may be on health grounds also. The question then arises as to how many items should be examined on a sampling basis. For example, the consignment to be examined may be a set of CDs, some of which are thought to contain pornographic material. Then it is desirable for the examining officers to examine as few CDs as is commensurate with a good description of the proportion of the CDs which are illicit. The sample size determination is really just a quality control problem; there are UN Guidelines where the problem concerns drugs.
Finally, an important part of being a forensic statistician, as indeed it is for any statistician, is the ability to communicate results effectively to non-statisticians. Forensic statisticians are often required to attend court cases as "expert witnesses". This involves reporting calculated probabilities, or other statistical measures, to the jury, and explaining to them how the calculations were performed. This is a challenge in itself, as the jury will typically consist of people who have little knowledge of statistical methods, and is further complicated by the need to choose careful wording (so as not to "lead" the jury into a decision on guilt or innocence of a defendant).
Who employs forensic statisticians?
There is an increasing need for people to understand the role and application of probability and statistics in forensic science and the law. However, there are essentially no jobs and no career structure in forensic statistics in the UK as such.
The Forensic Science Service (FSS) of England and Wales has an Interpretation Group which considers problems of evidence evaluation, but it is small in size. In many cases, if the FSS wants help with a problem, it employs consultants. The Home Office has a Policing and Reducing Crime Unit which offers occasional contract work for statisticians to assist in particular projects. Individual police forces and law firms may also seek assistance with particular cases.
The area of DNA profiling is also growing. Although not strictly forensic statistics, there may be opportunities for statisticians in companies specialising in the analysis of DNA profiles for paternity and kinship testing.
The main route into a career involving forensic statistics is essentially as an academic, either as a university lecturer or specifically as a researcher. You would probably need to gain a lecturing or research post in a mathematics or statistics university department, and then pursue a research or consultancy path as part of your day-to-day work there. There are some research institutes that primarily focus on forensic science and statistics, notably the Joseph Bell Centre for Forensic Statistics and Legal Reasoning
What qualifications are typically required?
As we have explained above, it is often necessary to follow a career as an academic in order to be involved with forensic statistics, and the qualifications required for this are outlined on our career as a university lecturer page. For other positions, within forensic science units (UK-based or otherwise) or companies, an appropriate undergraduate degree is likely to be a minimum requirement, with postgraduate experience an advantage.
Continuing professional development
Forensic statisticians need to continue their personal and professional development. This can be done in several ways.
Most universities offer staff development programmes in which you may take short courses on almost anything, including computing software, presentational skills, management development and teaching skills. Even if you do not work in a university, at least some courses of a similar nature are likely to be available.
The statistical methods on which your work is based are also, of course, used in other application areas. You will probably find that there are conferences where the latest developments in these methods are explored; you might be able to submit papers or abstracts about your statistical work and attend the conferences, when you could have the opportunity to present your own papers as well as attend other presentations. Many conferences also have workshops in which you could participate. You are also likely to be encouraged to write up the statistical aspects of your work as formal papers for academic journals.
It will be extremely important to develop your communication skills, so that you can report your findings effectively to members of the police and legal professions, and all the more so if you will actually be appearing in court as an expert witness. It will also be important to gain some understanding of the legal system.
Your professional work as a statistician might well make it appropriate for you to seek the professional qualification of Chartered Statistician (CStat), which would give you a professional affiliation with the Royal Statistical Society.
Salaries and opportunities for advancement
As we have explained, work as a forensic statistician is likely to be on a consultancy basis, often coupled with a career as an academic. So there is, in effect, no salary structure attached to a career as a forensic statistician per se. General information about salaries in the academic sector can be found on our career as a university lecturer page. This also contains information about academic career structures and promotion prospects.
How to locate job vacancies for forensic statisticians
Again, the absence of a career as such means that there are unlikely to be advertisements explicitly for "forensic statisticians" as such, though there may be opportunities for statisticians and programmers within government or commercial forensic science and DNA profiling organisations. Any advertisements might appear in several places, including the following:
Daily newspapers (The Times, The Guardian and The Independent are probably the best).
The newsletter RSS NEWS of the Royal Statistical Society which is issued monthly to all members of the Society.
Electronic mailing lists (such as Allstat).
New Scientist.
Recycling Non-Organic Waste
Aka Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
MSW consists of everyday items such as product packaging, grass clippings, furniture, clothing, bottles, food scraps, newspapers, appliances, paint, and batteries.
Aka Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
MSW consists of everyday items such as product packaging, grass clippings, furniture, clothing, bottles, food scraps, newspapers, appliances, paint, and batteries.
In 2006, the US produced more than 251 million tons of MSW, which is approximately 4.6 pounds of waste per person per day. That is a lot of waste Several MSW management practices, such as source reduction, recycling, and composting, prevent or divert materials from the wastestream.
Source reduction involves altering the design, manufacture, or use of products and materials to reduce the amount and toxicity of what gets thrown away.
Recycling diverts items, such as paper, glass, plastic, and metals, from the wastestream. These materials are sorted, collected, and processed and then manufactured, sold, and bought as new products.
Composting decomposes organic waste, such as food scraps and yard trimmings, with microorganisms (mainly bacteria and fungi), producing a humus-like substance.
Other practices address those materials that require disposal. Landfills are engineered areas where waste is placed into the land. Landfills usually have liner systems and other safeguards to prevent groundwater contamination. Combustion is another MSW practice that has helped reduce the amount of landfill space needed. Combustion facilities burn MSW at a high temperature, reducing waste volume and generating electricity.
How should we deal with MSW?
EPA has ranked the most environmentally sound strategies for MSW.
Source reduction (including reuse)
Recycling and composting, and, lastly,
Disposal in combustion facilities and landfills.
Currently, in the US, 32.5% is recovered and recycled or composted, 12.5 percent is burned at combustion facilities, and the remaining 55 percent is disposed of in landfills.
Source Reduction (Waste Prevention)
Source reduction can be a successful method of reducing waste generation. Practices such as grasscycling, backyard composting, two-sided copying of paper, and transport packaging reduction by industry have yielded substantial benefits through source reduction.
Source reduction has many environmental benefits. It prevents emissions of many greenhouse gases, reduces pollutants, saves energy, conserves resources, and reduces the need for new landfills and combustors.
Recycling
Source reduction involves altering the design, manufacture, or use of products and materials to reduce the amount and toxicity of what gets thrown away.
Recycling diverts items, such as paper, glass, plastic, and metals, from the wastestream. These materials are sorted, collected, and processed and then manufactured, sold, and bought as new products.
Composting decomposes organic waste, such as food scraps and yard trimmings, with microorganisms (mainly bacteria and fungi), producing a humus-like substance.Other practices address those materials that require disposal. Landfills are engineered areas where waste is placed into the land. Landfills usually have liner systems and other safeguards to prevent groundwater contamination. Combustion is another MSW practice that has helped reduce the amount of landfill space needed. Combustion facilities burn MSW at a high temperature, reducing waste volume and generating electricity.
How should we deal with MSW?
EPA has ranked the most environmentally sound strategies for MSW.
Source reduction (including reuse)
Recycling and composting, and, lastly,
Disposal in combustion facilities and landfills.
Currently, in the US, 32.5% is recovered and recycled or composted, 12.5 percent is burned at combustion facilities, and the remaining 55 percent is disposed of in landfills.
Source Reduction (Waste Prevention)
Source reduction can be a successful method of reducing waste generation. Practices such as grasscycling, backyard composting, two-sided copying of paper, and transport packaging reduction by industry have yielded substantial benefits through source reduction.
Source reduction has many environmental benefits. It prevents emissions of many greenhouse gases, reduces pollutants, saves energy, conserves resources, and reduces the need for new landfills and combustors.
Recycling
Recycling, including composting, diverted 82 million tons of material away from disposal in 2006, up from 15 million tons in 1980, when the recycle rate was just 10% and 90% of MSW was being combusted with energy recovery or disposed of by landfilling.
Typical materials that are recycled include batteries, recycled at a rate of 99%, paper and paperboard at 52%, and yard trimmings at 62%. These materials and others may be recycled through curbside programs, drop-off centers, buy-back programs, and deposit systems.
Recycling prevents the emission of many greenhouse gases and water pollutants, saves energy, supplies valuable raw materials to industry, creates jobs, stimulates the development of greener technologies, conserves resources for our children's future, and reduces the need for new landfills and combustors.
Recycling also helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions that affect global climate. In 1996, recycling of solid waste in the United States prevented the release of 33 million tons of carbon into the air-roughly the amount emitted annually by 25 million cars.
Combustion/Incineration
Burning MSW can generate energy while reducing the amount of waste by up to 90 percent in volume and 75 percent in weight.
Recycling also helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions that affect global climate. In 2006, the national recycling rate of 32.5 percent (82 million tons recycled) prevented the release of approximately 49.7 million metric tons of carbon into the air--roughly the amount emitted annually by 39 million cars, or 1,300 trillion BTUs, saving energy equivalent to 10 billion gallons of gasoline.
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